Fed, chips and oil — a triple hit sent stocks sliding

Today's Market

On the 29th (local time), the Dow -2.2%, Nasdaq -1.7% and S&P 500 -1.5% all fell, with the VIX spiking to 20.66 (+13.4%) — three pressures hit at once: the Fed, chips and oil.

• The Fed held rates but a hawkish signal reignited tightening fears

• Chips fell for a third day — Micron (MU) -9.9%, Marvell (MRVL) -6.3%, AMD -5.5%, Philadelphia Semis (SOXX) -5.4%

• Oil jumped +6.3% — a broken Middle East ceasefire and an Iranian missile strike revived supply fears

Market Data

S&P 500

7,316.15

▼1.52%

NASDAQ

24,442.94

▼1.74%

DOW

51,594.14

▼2.19%

VIX

20.66

▲13.45%

Sector Heat Map

SPY benchmark + 11 GICS sectors · 1-day

S&P 500 SPY −1.54%	Technology XLK −2.64%	Comm. Svcs XLC −0.15%	Cons. Discr. XLY −0.77%
Cons. Staples XLP +0.34%	Energy XLE +1.88%	Financials XLF −1.60%	Health Care XLV −0.61%
Industrials XLI −3.19%	Materials XLB −1.15%	Real Estate XLRE −0.11%	Utilities XLU −1.34%

In Focus

Inside the "hawkish hold" 🏦

Rates unchanged, but the signal leaned hawkish — hike dissents and a guidance gap

• Three officials dissented in favor of a hike — read as more hawkish than expected

• Removing forward guidance widened policy uncertainty — long-end yields rose

• Direction defers to the 30th AAPL/Amazon earnings and the PCE print

The AI-chip crack deepens 📉

AI-chip valuation strain and China-competition fears hit memory hardest

• SK Hynix's record profit missed estimates; Korean stocks kept sliding

• "AI capex overheating" doubts extended the sell-off in memory and equipment names

Earnings Note

MSFT2026-07-29 8-K

• Revenue $90.0B (YoY +18%), EPS $4.81 (GAAP +32%), and Microsoft Cloud $59.3B (+27%) materially exceeded consensus

• Quarter-end shareholder returns $10.2B; expanded buybacks and dividends accelerated cash returns, signaling an aggressive shift to shareholder returns

META2026-07-29 8-K

• Revenue $60.80B (YoY +28%), EPS $6.18, driven by ad prices +12%

• Q3 guidance $61-64B (FX -1%) and a conservative presentation following an upward revision of the annual cost outlook to $165-169B

This Week

ALL TIMES EASTERN (ET)

• Big Tech earnings, PCE and energy earnings on deck

• Thu 7/30 AAPL earnings | EPS est $1.89

• Thu 7/30 AMZN earnings | EPS est $1.82

• Thu 7/30 MA earnings | EPS est $4.78

• Thu 7/30 GDP

• Thu 7/30 Personal Income & Outlays (PCE)

• Fri 7/31 XOM earnings | EPS est $3.69

• Fri 7/31 CVX earnings | EPS est $5.57

• Fri 7/31 Michigan Consumer Sentiment

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. All investment decisions are your own responsibility.

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