Oil dove 5% and software rallied — why did the Nasdaq surge?

Today's Market

On the 3rd (local time), easing Iran tensions sent oil -5.1% and the 10-year Treasury yield -5.9bp lower. Risk appetite returned: the Nasdaq +2.1%, S&P 500 +1.5% and Dow +1.3% all closed higher.

• Software led — Oracle (ORCL) +9.2%, CrowdStrike (CRWD) +6.1%, Snowflake (SNOW) +4.9%, Microsoft (MSFT) +4.9%

• Other large caps joined — Boeing (BA) +8.0%, Blackstone (BX) +6.5%, Meta (META) +6.0%

• Chips sat it out — the semiconductor ETF (SOXX) +0.6%, roughly flat; VIX 15.86 (-0.8%) stayed calm

Market Data

S&P 500

7,600.50

▲1.48%

NASDAQ

25,913.90

▲2.13%

DOW

53,178.41

▲1.32%

VIX

15.86

▼0.81%

Sector Heat Map

SPY benchmark + 11 GICS sectors · 1-day

S&P 500 SPY +1.42%	Technology XLK +1.53%	Comm. Svcs XLC +2.86%	Cons. Discr. XLY +1.83%
Cons. Staples XLP −0.22%	Energy XLE −1.28%	Financials XLF +0.77%	Health Care XLV −0.19%
Industrials XLI +1.85%	Materials XLB +1.15%	Real Estate XLRE +0.24%	Utilities XLU +0.02%

In Focus

The geopolitical premium unwound — inflation is next 🛢️

A called-off strike and talks reversed the supply risk

• Trump called off the Iran strike and announced talks, dissolving supply-disruption fears

• Steadier energy prices tilt the second-half inflation path lower, easing rate pressure

• But talks are only starting — renewed escalation could rebuild the premium

Software rotation, a beneficiary of falling yields 💻

A friendlier rate backdrop for long-duration growth

• Lower yields favor richly-valued software — the discount-rate effect

• Mid-earnings-season positioning shifted from chips into software, a rotation

• AMD's results on the 4th are the test of whether the chip/software gap persists

This Week

ALL TIMES EASTERN (ET)

• An earnings rush plus jobs data — Friday's payrolls is the highlight

• Tue 8/4 JOLTs (Job Openings)

• Tue 8/4 AMD earnings | EPS est $1.61

• Tue 8/4 CAT earnings | EPS est $6.20

• Tue 8/4 MCD earnings | EPS est $3.32

• Wed 8/5 ADP Employment

• Fri 8/7 Employment Situation (NFP)

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. All investment decisions are your own responsibility.

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